The daily review is about the most important news which will be during the week, including long-term analysis for a specific investors that are looking for advanced trading. The review is made to show in-general analysis to understand the predicted moves during the week.
Euro vs U.S. Dollar
June 6, 2016read more
Building expectations for a possible June rate hike were sharply unwound last week in the wake of a shockingly low Nonfarm Payrolls print for May, which printed at just 38k vs the expected 160k. This data comes shortly after Fed Chair Yellen noted that a rate hike was probably appropriate in the coming months provided economic data continues to pick up in Q2. With this sharp decline in labor market conditions, confidence in this sentiment has now weakened materially.
ECB paused as expected, leaving main refinancing rate unchanged at 0.0% and deposit rate at -0.4%. President Mario Draghi left the door open for extension of the stimulus program if needed and commented that “UK should remain in the European Union, because the European Union would benefit from its permanence”, joining BOE in highlighting downside risks of Brexit. June’s macroeconomic projection foresee real GDP to increase 1.6% this year and 1.7% in the next two years, with this year’s forecast revised slightly higher from March forecast. CPI was also revised higher for this year to 0.2% in 2016 (previous 0.1%), but unchanged at 1.3% in 2017 and 1.6% in 2018.
Stocks tumbled Thursday on fears of a June rate hike from the Fed
May 23, 2016read more
The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.2% for the week for a fourth consecutive week of losses, but the S&P 500 index snapped a three-week losing streak to close 0.3% higher. The Nasdaq Composite Index finished up 1.1% for the week to snap a four-week streak of losses.
Investors will turn their full attention to economic data and how Fed members are parsing that data in their decision to raise rates. On the heels of Fed minutes that raised the possibility of a June rate hike, the raft of Fed speakers this week will have particular influence on markets.
European Stocks expected to rise aimed by ECB support
March 14, 2016read more
– European stocks opened higher on Monday, as the European Central Bank’s latest policy move continued to support equities and as investors eyed the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision this week.
The ECB cut its benchmark interest rate to a record-low of zero from 0.05% and boosted its quantitative easing program by €20 billion per month to €80 billion, starting in April.
Oil prices pulled back from three-month highs in European trade on Monday, after Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said his country won’t join a group production freeze until it doubles its post-sanctions output.
Zanganeh said Tehran would join discussions between other producers about a possible freeze only after its own output reached pre-sanction levels of nearly four million barrels per day, Iran’s ISNA news agency reported on Sunday.
Crude Oil is trading near two months high
March 7, 2016read more
– Oil prices extended last week’s strong gains on Monday, hitting fresh two-month highs amid the growing view that a 20-month-long market rout is finally coming to an end.
– A meeting is planned later this month in which producers will discuss the details of the proposed action.
Global crude production is outpacing demand following a boom in U.S. Shale oil and after a decision by OPEC last year not to cut production in order to defend market share, driving down prices by more than 70% over the past 20 months.
Unemployment rate at its lowest level since 2008
February 8, 2016read more
– On Friday morning, the Non-farm payrolls increased by 151,000 in January, falling considerably from a downwardly revised 262,000 in December. The sharp declines were blamed in large part to unseasonably warm temperatures over the previous month, which created an unanticipated demand for labor in the construction industry. After two months of robust gains, the headline dipped under 200,000 for the first time since September.
– The unemployment rate, meanwhile, inched down 0.1% to 4.9%, falling to its lowest level since February, 2008. The U-6 unemployment rate, a broader gauge of the national employment situation, remained unchanged at 9.9%, one-tenth above its November low when it fell its lowest level since May, 2008. The reading, which measures the total level of unemployed workers plus those marginally attached to the labor force, stood at 11.1% last October. The indicator also accounts for workers who are no longer looking for a job, but have looked for one over the last 12 months.
Macro-Economic reports failed in Japan, However the Yen still steady
January 25, 2016read more
– Last week, the dollar rose against the other major currencies on Friday as expectations for fresh central bank easing bolstered risk appetite, dampening safe haven demand for the yen and the Swiss franc.
In Japan, the December trade balance came in at a surplus of ¥140 billion, beating a surplus of ¥100 billion seen. Exports fell 8.0%, more than the drop of 6.8% expected, while imports fell 18.0%, more than the 16.4% drop seen.
Later on Monday, Australia is to release private sector data on business confidence, and in the euro zone, the Ifo Institute is to report on German business climate. ECB head Mario Draghi is to speak at an event in Frankfurt.
Join us for free